Switch Predicted to Dominate Next-Gen Console Market
Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence projects the Nintendo Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts the Switch 2 will sell 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028, outpacing competitors Microsoft and Sony. This success is attributed to its anticipated early 2025 release and limited initial competition. The report suggests Nintendo may face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
DFC Intelligence labels the Switch 2 the "clear winner," forecasting Nintendo as the console market leader. While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages, potentially leaving a three-year gap before significant competition emerges (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026). The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve substantial success, possibly a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
This projection aligns with the Switch's remarkable success; its lifetime US sales have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2, now ranking second only to the Nintendo DS in all-time US hardware sales, according to Circana (formerly NPD). This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% decrease in Switch's yearly sales.
The broader video game industry also shows promising growth, with DFC Intelligence's CEO, David Cole, highlighting a projected healthy growth rate through the end of the decade, following a two-year slump. 2025 is anticipated as a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. The expanding gaming audience, projected to exceed 4 billion by 2027, fueled by the rise of mobile gaming, esports, and gaming influencers, contributes to this positive outlook. Hardware purchases, for both PCs and consoles, are also experiencing growth.
